On March 16, three players all finished with $16,000 on Jeopardy. The Associated press released a story claiming a 1 in 25 million chance of this happening (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17653609/).
My question is: Why doesn't this happen more? My prediction: It will now.
First off, the 1 in 25 million number is not correct. Odds cannot be calculated for a three-way tie on Jeopardy since a tie relies on one or more contestants choosing to tie. Final Jeopardy is not a game of chance. The contestants have free will to bet to win, or to tie unless all three contestants enter final Jeopardy with the same amount. In this case, Scott Weiss chose to tie the game.
Friday's game played out like this: Mr. Weiss entered final Jeopardy with $13,600.
The other two contestants each had $8,000. The rational bet for the two players with $8,000 was to bet all of their money hoping for a two way tie should Mr. Weiss get the question wrong. They would have assumed (incorrectly in this case) that Mr. Weiss would bet $2,599 assuring a win should he get the question correct. But that is not what happened. Mr. Weiss bet $2,600 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV9vuKfVO04), and all three tied. There is a lot of talk now about why someone would do this. Mr. Weiss says he was being generous. But what if he was following his own self interest?
Under the rules of Jeopardy, in a first place tie all tied players get the money, and all are crowned Jeopardy champions, and all tied players return the following week. So Mr. Weiss gets the payout AND he gets to face the same two people he just beat by 60% instead of drawing random players the following week who might turn out to be much stronger. Mr. Weiss gave up $1 to pick his competition. In game theory we would look at this as a sequential game. Mr. Weiss's two day payout is likely to be bigger with a tie than a win. As other contestants catch on to this, expect to see more ties for first place on Jeopardy.
Three-way tie on Jeopardy - Why doesn't this happen more often?
The two-minute MBA
Need an MBA, but only have two minutes? Do you need to know how an MBA thinks? Here are some of the big concepts that shape the MBA mind: 
1. Time is money. MBAs call it the time value of money. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because if you get it today, you have an extra day to invest it. Remember that when you slip a deadline you cost your company money.
2. What gets measured gets done. If you measure the wrong thing, you get the wrong results. When measuring people or processes, be sure to fully think through how someone might game your system. Want someone to cut costs? How about at the expense of profits, or by moving their costs to another department. Believe me, it happens all the time.
3. Execution is king. What every MBA knows is that there are a lot of good ideas out there. Sometimes it seems like everyone you meet has a good idea to make some money. What we also know is that few actually make money on their ideas. The difference between ideas and success is execution. It is the hard part of business, and the part that takes real work. Nobody wants to hear your ideas, they just want to know you can execute.
4. Decisions matter. Businesses succeed, businesses fail. To be sure part of the difference is the whims of markets and consumers, but most of the what creates success is the cumulative affect of decisions, and the best decision makers can overcome any market whim. When you make a decision at work, you are committing your company to a path. That path has large ramifications down the line. Have respect for the power of a well thought out decision.
5. Fit. In business fit is in. Your business needs to be consistent to be successful. This means internally consistent (the pieces fit together), and externally consistent (it fits with the industry / environment). This translates into smaller parts of the company also. The more things fit, the better the company will be. Think about your own business unit. Do all of the parts fit? If not, examine why.
More big ideas for MBAs? Let me know...
Dinosaurs in the field
dinosaurs in the field.1. Avoidance. Go around, go through, go over. Any way you can avoid the dinosaur. If you can't avoid (your boss perhaps), read on...
2. Find their motivation. This goes for anyone, but is particularly useful for dinosaurs. Are they motivated by self interest and political protectionism alone? Is it fame and recognition they seek? Respect of others? Money? Knowing the motivation helps you craft a strategy to deal with them.
3. Identify their reflection. What does the dinosaur see in the pond? Knowing how they see themselves gets you close to how to deal with them. Play back their reflection to them and they will trust you. Maybe if they trust you, they will leave you to do your work.
4. Maintain the order. Dinosaurs are wed to hierarchy. As unproductive as this can be in a modern collaborative work environment, keeping at least the illusion of order and hierarchy helps them deal.
5. If all else fails, bury them with data. Dinosaurs love certainty and data. If they want to know more about your work, give them all of it. The sheer volume keeps them occupied.
Do you have other tactics for dealing with Dinosaurs in the field? Let me know...
5 things to check before placing blame
When something goes wrong at work, it is often easy to get caught up in looking for the person responsible. Before you do, consider checking these five reasons things go wrong:
1. Process - Make sure the process is correct and doable. A good process should not leave room for errors to go undetected. Bulletproof the process, and this problem will not happen again. Place blame, and in all likelihood, it will.
2. Inputs - Was the issue really that someone failed or was it that someone had bad inputs? Was it bad information from the client? Was it an incorrect report? Find out to stop this issue from reappearing.
3. Equipment - Bad equipment can derail even the best process. Make sure your people have what they need to get the job done. Goes without saying.
4. Metrics - This is a tough one to ferret out, but it is also the most common cause of failure. How you measure success impacts what people do. Make sure your measurements make sense. Think how the focus of performance reviews and status reports might cause things to go awry. If people are following incentives, can you really blame them?
5. Chance - Sometimes failure is really just random chance. Nobody and no process is immune to chance. If the failure is an isolated event and the impact is small think about cutting some slack.
Of course if these five are all in shape, go ahead an place blame, someone really missed the mark.
Disagree? Let me know...